Harvard Business School
Encompassing a wide array of questions about computing, communication, and internet markets, Professor Greenstein’s research extends from economic measurement and analysis to broader issues. His most recent book focuses on the development of the commercial internet in the United States. Greenstein is also codirector of the program on the economics of digitization at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
|The COVID-19 pandemic will lead companies to relocate infrastructure and employees away from dense urban locations.||Agree||9||“Many companies, big and small, have engaged in large-scale experiments with working from home. Even places where resistance used to be high. Some of that — certainly not all of it — will remain in place after this pandemic passes.”|
|The California Consumer Privacy Act will undermine the targeted advertising market by giving consumers the right to opt out of allowing companies to sell personal data to third parties.||Disagree||6||“There is a lot of ambiguity in this statute. Enforcement/fines are also unclear. Requires practices that most users say they want. Leaves many channels open for targeting. Do not expect we will see an effect for a while, if any.”|
|In the wake of recent climate-related disasters and related events, such as the bankruptcy of PG&E, corporations are now planning for the increased operational risks and potential liabilities caused by climate change.||Disagree||7||“Climate change alters risks in many unpredictable ways — coastal flooding, travel interruption, logistic complications. Some of the risks are difficult to insure against without public coordination and investment — remember the floods of New Orleans?”|
|Antitrust policy should intervene more decisively to limit the scope of large technology platforms.||Neither Agree nor Disagree||8||“Antitrust is best at facilitating the potential for entry. It can limit an established firm’s ability to close distribution channels. It can stop said firm from locking up resources from new entrants. ‘Limiting the scope’ of big tech firms might be one of many things antitrust can aim to do as part of these broad aims. However, there are many others as well.”|
|U.S. regulations have been rolled back in a number of areas, including emissions standards and clean water. Companies will decide to voluntarily adhere to rules that closely resemble the original standards.||Disagree||7||“In some areas, firms will not hesitate to take advantage of relaxed environmental rules — e.g., if allowed, oil firms will drill anywhere, and pristine wildlife will not deter [them]. In some areas, firms recognize the myopia of giving in, and prefer to hold the line — e.g., that seems to be happening in autos. ”|
|The Business Roundtable’s new Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation indicates a shift away from shareholder value maximization as the sole purpose of the corporation and toward a broader view of value creation.
This shift will have material impact on the well-being of U.S. workers.
|Agree||8||“Organizations whose missions extend beyond maximizing shareholder value tend to provide more satisfying work experiences for employees. Ironically, shareholders tend to get a more productive organization, which is what they want if the organization is not so narrowly focused.”|
|In the next decade, we will see the first sustainably profitable private commercial activities in space.||Agree||7||“It sure appears as if space tourism — for experiencing weightlessness and for the views — will become a luxury good for some wealthy people.”|
|Introducing 5G networks 3-5 years ahead of other countries will give Chinese firms an advantage.||Strongly Agree||9||“There are no compelling applications for 5G yet, but there are many promising prototypes in security, entertainment, and logistics. Give inventive and competent firms time to explore, and they will invent something and figure out how to get revenue from it. More time is a big advantage.”|
|The increase in stock market volatility that began in 2018 will last for another three to five years.||Neither Agree nor Disagree||1||“Many factors move the stock market. I do not think I can forecast 1% of them, so I do not think I am capable of forecasting volatility that results from their accumulation.”|
|A hard Brexit will have a significant negative impact on many businesses, even if they do not have a U.K. or European presence.||Agree||5||“It will have a significant impact on businesses in the U.K. while all the uncertainty gets sorted out. Outside the U.K., some businesses are exposed to related risks, but I would not guess it is nearly as large.”|
|China is no longer the most attractive growth opportunity for Western multinationals.||Agree||7||“It is possible to get access to inexpensive manufacturing facilities at tremendous scale, but selling within China poses many challenges.”|
|In the next five years, the blockchain will have a transformative effect on finance in emerging markets.||Disagree||6||“Blockchain finance has to be cleaned up quite a bit before it will have the transformative effect its enthusiasts forecast. Right now, it enables too much pump and dump, fraud, and money laundering. For these and many other reasons, no government accepts it as a form of payment. These are difficult challenges — might be solved in five years, but I remain a skeptic.”|
|In the absence of a carbon tax, industry self-regulation can help mitigate the worst fallout from climate change.||Strongly Disagree||10||“In the absence of regulation or international agreement, there will be no way to stop ‘bad actors’ from taking shortcuts. Even legitimate actors will face strong pressure to gain short-term cost reduction from not preventing polluting. There are an enormous number of historical and contemporary examples. It should be beyond dispute.”|
|Amazon’s new $15 per hour minimum wage will force other companies to follow suit.||Disagree||5||“Amazon already was feeling pressures from the difficulties of staffing at such a large scale, and from the difficulties limiting turnover in a heated labor market. Other firms that hire in similar markets have to raise wages too, but not just because Amazon did it. Because the labor market puts pressure on all of them. It appears it will be difficult to get temp workers for the holiday season.”|
|Restrictions on skilled immigration will cause US firms to to shift more operations overseas.||Strongly Agree||9||“Restrictions on skilled immigration HAVE ALREADY led firms to move some operations to other countries. More restrictions will lead to more moves.”|
|Uber has to develop self-driving cars in the next 10 years in order to remain viable.||Agree||6||“Uber needs self-driving cars to justify its sky-high valuations. Without [them], the investment community will not allow [Uber] to lose as much money as they are losing now. That will hamstring their growth.”|
|A trade war will be more disruptive to business than to consumers.||Strongly Agree||9||“Trade wars hurt everyone, but intermediate goods markets are a much larger fraction of the economy than final goods. Uncertainty over price and availability hurts business planning and operations.”|
|Concern over consumer privacy will fundamentally limit businesses’ ability to use big data.||Disagree||7||“There are few effective limits on firms selling information to each other.”|